STAC recently submitted a letter to the Chesapeake Bay Program detailing the committee’s investigations into climate change impacts on the Chesapeake Bay watershed. Since 2007, STAC has collaborated with scientific experts from across the region to assess the current state of climate change research as it relates to the Bay watershed. The letter outlined many concerns STAC has with the CBP programs and policies that do not correctly account for climate change.

Specifically, STAC was, and is still, concerned that the flow of pollutants into the Chesapeake Bay, the performance of environmental monitoring programs intended to measure success and guide decision-making, the design of regulatory programs including the Bay-wide TMDL, and the effectiveness of restoration strategies, including those outlined in state watershed implementation plans (WIPs), may be significantly affected due to changing climate conditions. The report concluded that precipitation rates across the watershed will change as the climate changes. The report goes on to explain that as flow rates within the tributaries are altered from predictable, historic patterns, erosion and runoff rates may change dramatically. However, the Phase 5.3 Watershed Model does not include climate change scenarios in its calculations. Because of this, STAC is extremely worried that using the current model to estimate TMDL allocations will result in jurisdictions managing for past conditions and not future river discharges and nutrient and sediment contributions.