Kick-off Session for Developing Land Use Projections and Alernative Future Scenarios for the Phase 5 Model

At the September 2005 CBP Reevaluation Workshop, the implications of continued population growth and development on meeting and maintaining nutrient load limits were discussed. The Reevaluation Workshop partners agreed on the need for projecting future land uses, animal populations and point source loads beyond 2010 out to 2030, including intermediate projections between base year and 2030. The Land Growth and Stewardship Subcommittee (LGSS) was assigned the lead responsibility for carrying out this work, working closely with the Nutrient and Modeling Subcommittees as well as the Local Government Advisory Committee. LGSS is developing growth simulation models that can better predict patterns of urban development associated with population increases and have developed this workshop working with STAC as a co-sponsor. The workshop aimed to: 1) provide background on tools to develop land use projections and alternative future scenarios (Urban growth models and Phase V model) and set the stage for the STAC review of the urban growth models in February 2006; 2) discuss the input to the urban growth models (such as impervious cover, population and employment forecasts); 3) begin discussion on the alternative future scenarios to be analyzed; and 4) agree to roles and responsibilities to develop land use projections and alternative future scenarios as outlined in the timeline.