Thresholds and Non-Linear Trajectories in Recovery of Eutrophic Coastal Ecosystems

The goal of the workshop was to improve understanding and ability to anticipate and interpret timing and trajectories of complex non-linear ecosystem responses to nutrient load reductions and other management actions in Chesapeake Bay. Workshop discussions ranged from analysis of theoretical models of ecosystem dynamics to real-world examples in which evidence of ecological thresholds and feedback interactions have been documented and quantified in aquatic environments. The ultimate goal of this workshop was to understand how these ecological relationships may affect the timing, sequence and spatial patterns by which water quality, habitat conditions and living resources are likely to change in response to management actions such as decreased nutrient loading. Furthermore, the workshop addressed the question of how to identify approaching incipient thresholds that could lead to abrupt ecological change ('tipping points') by using some combinations of model and monitoring data analysis.