The Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) has used its modeling system as a planning tool to inform strategic management decisions and adaptation toward Bay restoration since the 1980s. This modeling system has been continually updated with improvements and advancements intended to keep pace with emerging science.  However, it had been more than a decade since STAC convened a dedicated workshop to discuss future directions for the suite of modeling tools used by the CBP. Given the developments since the previous model visioning workshop, and the completion of the 2017 mid-point assessment of the EPA’s Total Maximum Daily Load regulatory process, it was timely to convene a workshop aimed at formulating a vision for future CBP modeling to guide the Partnership into the future, i.e., from 2025 and beyond.

The workshop was convened January 17-19, 2018 at the National Conservation Training Center in Shepherdstown, West Virginia.  It brought 70 regional and national experts together to develop a vision for a post-2025 CBP modeling system. Invited speakers and participants included experts in (1) the Bay Program’s modeling system, (2) alternative integrative modeling approaches, (3) multiple and ensemble modeling, (4) shallow water modeling, (5) uncertainty assessment, (6) open source and community modeling, (7) stakeholder engagement and social science, (8) modular modeling approaches, and (9) CBP management needs.

The final report (Hood et al., 2019; available at: http://www.chesapeake.org/stac/stac_ws_pubs.php) presents the conclusions of workshop experts on how to improve the 2017 modeling system for TMDL development in 2025 and beyond, and provides specific guidance that emerged from breakout group discussions on how to realize this vision for future CBP modeling.

Efforts are now underway by workshop participants to develop this report into a manuscript for submission to the journal Ecological Modeling.

Reference

Hood, R.R., G. Shenk, R. Dixon, W. Ball, J. Bash, C. Cerco, P. Claggett, L. Harris, T.F. Ihde, L. Linker, C. Sherwood, and L. Wainger. 2019. Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling in 2025 and Beyond: A Proactive Visioning Workshop. STAC Publication Number 19-002, Edgewater, MD. 62 pages.

Written by Raleigh Hood