May 2021 Director’s Corner

Denice Wardrop

Inflection Points

I have been thinking a lot about inflection points lately – changes in direction, changes in slope. ScienceDirect provides a useful definition as, “Inflection points are spots where the growth of the curve begins to slow (going from concave up to concave down), or increase (going from concave down to concave up). A point and a pause, where history becomes irrelevant as a predictor to what’s next. My attention to inflection points started in 2004 with the “Great Acceleration” graphs (they were updated in 2010), which charted human activity from the start of the industrial revolution and the subsequent changes in the Earth System – e.g. greenhouse gas levels, ocean acidification, deforestation and biodiversity deterioration. The direction of the graphs seemed to infer that environmental destiny was a runaway train; environmental deterioration was increasing at a rate that might not be addressable or controllable. But the time of Covid has shown us a whole new group of inflection points: global air pollution levels after Covid protocols, Covid infections themselves, vaccination rates, wildlife sightings, and the list goes on and on. It is possible, it seems, to bend the curve in ways that seemed improbable only last year. At our recent CRC Roundtable, we listened to stories of experienced caretakers of Chesapeake waters, to arcs of stories and inflection points of approach. So what to make of this moment?

It turns out that there are ways to approach this pause as scientists and managers, and clues can be found in the business section of the bookstore (transdisciplinary surprise!). Business defines an inflection point as an event that results in a significant change in progress and can be considered a turning point after which a dramatic change, with either positive or negative results, is expected to result. We are at such a point in the restoration work, when the goals that we set for 2025 are within our view on the graph but it is becoming clear that our progress in some areas needs to accelerate, to have an inflection point. Many will be familiar with the book by Marshall Goldsmith, “What got you here won’t get you there”, and I think that it contains some helpful advice on how to make the most of this inflection point. In general, the book focuses on continuous improvement, especially for those people (insert restoration work here) who have already achieved a certain level of success. The issue lies in resolving the belief that “We’re successful” and the thinking of “Why change if it’s working?” But here’s the salient point: the skills and habits that have taken us this far might not be the right skills and habits to take us further. In other words, what got us here won’t get us there. While most of the advice pertains to personal behaviors to both stop doing (20 items) and start doing (7 items), a few seem to translate to our restoration efforts right now (paraphrased from this summary).

Things to Stop Doing

  • Telling the world how smart we are: The need to show people we’re smarter than they think we are.
  • Negativity, or “Let me explain why that won’t work”: The need to share our negative thoughts even when we weren’t asked.
  • Failing to give proper recognition: The inability to praise and reward.
  • Punishing the messenger: The misguided need to attack the innocent who are usually only trying to help us.
  • Passing the buck: The need to blame everyone but ourselves.

Things to Start Doing

  • Obtaining honest, confidential feedback: the really interesting stuff that is learned is the information that’s known to others but unknown to us (in other words our “blind spots“).
  • Listening is critical to our success in learning from other people: there are three things that all good listeners do: They think before they speak; they listen with respect; and they’re always gauging their response by asking themselves whether what they’re about to say is worth what the other person will feel after hearing it.
  • Following Up: it shows that you care about getting better.

So here’s a toast to inflection points; may we use this one well.

Denice